New Index Shows Housing Markets Back to Normal in 52 Metros

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - Housing markets in 52 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide have now returned to or exceeded their pre-recessionary levels of activity, according to the newly minted National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. The index's nationwide score of .85 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide housing market is running at 85 percent of normal activity.

Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.41 - or 41 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pa. - all of whose LMI scores indicate that their housing markets now exceed previous norms.

Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their housing markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Florence, Ala., respectively.

"This index helps illustrate how far the U.S. housing recovery has come, and also how much further it has to go as we continue to face some significant headwinds in terms of credit availability, rising costs for lots and labor, and uncertainties regarding Washington policymaking," said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C.

The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment numbers for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.

"Smaller metros are leading the way to a housing recovery, accounting for 43 of the top 50 markets on the current LMI," observed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "This is very much in keeping with the results of our previous index for improving markets, and is an indication of the extent to which local economic conditions dictate the strength of individual housing markets."

"The housing markets of 118 metros scored by the LMI this month show activity levels of at least 90 percent of their previous norms - a very encouraging sign of things to come," said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.

Editor's Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment growth data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.

Housing Recovery Picks Up Steam Despite Persistent Headwinds

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Oct. 3 - With home prices and household formations rising and household balance sheets healing, the ongoing housing recovery is expected to gain momentum next year even as several challenges remain, according to economists who participated in yesterday's National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Fall 2013 Construction Forecast Webinar.

"The cards are in play for a decent and fairly strong recovery in 2014 and particularly in 2015," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "From the standpoint of GDP growth, housing has been a plus, growing at two, three and four times the rate of the rest of the economy in recent quarters."

Helping to spur the housing rebound was a double-digit increase in home prices over the past year, driven in part by tight inventories of new and existing homes for sale and gradual gains in employment.

"We expect to see price increases moderate in the next few years as we see additional inventory on the market and investors back away as the bargains disappear," said Crowe.

Another bright spot is rising household formations that were delayed during the downturn as college graduates and young professionals were forced to move back in with their parents or double up as roommates. At the height of the housing boom, the U.S. was producing 1.4 million additional households every year. That figure plunged to 500,000 during the depth of the recession and today is now back up to 700,000.

Meanwhile, households across the nation have been increasing their savings and shedding debt. "They've corrected a lot of excesses and feel more comfortable about moving forward," Crowe said, noting that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows that the percentage of consumers who believe that now is a good time to buy a house is back up to levels last seen near the housing boom.

However, Crowe cited several headwinds that are impeding the recovery.

"Credit conditions are much tighter now, builders are increasingly facing labor shortages, lot supplies are tight, building material prices are rising, and inaccurate appraisals are hurting home sales" he said.

"You can't charge more than you can get an appraisal for," Crowe added. "Even though we are seeing price increases in labor, land and materials, 36 percent of builder recently said they had lost at least one sale over appraisals coming in below the cost of production."

A Solid Outlook

NAHB is forecasting 924,000 total housing starts in 2013, up 18 percent from 783,000 units last year.
Single-family production is expected to rise 17 percent this year to 629,000 units, jump an additional 31 percent next year to 826,000 and surpass the 1 million mark in 2015.

NAHB is projecting that multifamily starts will increase 20 percent in 2013 to 296,000 units and rise an additional 10 percent to 326,000 units next year, which Crowe characterized as a normal level of multifamily production.

Meanwhile, residential remodeling has returned to previously normal levels of the early 2000s and remodeling activity is expected to register a modest gain this year over 2012.

"Our Remodeling Market Index has been above 50 for three of the last four quarters, indicating that remodelers feel things are going better," said Crowe. "Remodeling did not fall as much, so it does not have as much ground to make up."

Dodging a Bullet

Regarding the uncertainties emanating out of Washington over the government shutdown and the impending Oct. 17deadline when the government will run out of cash to pay its bills, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, expressed optimism that Congress will move quickly to resolve these critical issues.

"I truly anticipate that lawmakers will get it together, but that is definitely a challenge to my economic outlook," said Zandi. "If policymakers can't get it together by Oct. 17, we're toast, and I think we are going into recession."

Assuming the government meets these challenges, Zandi cited three reasons for optimism moving forward. First, the fiscal drag that is weighing heavily on the economy in the form of tax increases and government spending cuts that are now being implemented will continue to fade in the coming years. This fiscal drag will shave 1.5 percent off of GDP growth this year, about 0.7 percent next year and gradually fall to zero by 2016, he said.

Second, Zandi noted that the "private economy has done a marvelous job of reducing leverage and getting their balance sheets in order. American companies are in very good shape and they will do well going forward, with continued strong export growth. That will be a strong source of economic growth for a long time to come."

Finally, Zandi said that demographics make a compelling argument for a strengthening housing market.

"In the current housing market, supply is running around 950,000 annual units," he said. "In a normal economy, we should be producing 1.7 million units. That's a big difference. We've already made a lot of progress in working off excess inventory. We won't get housing construction up to 1.7 million quickly. The big problem in the next five years won't be too much housing, but too little housing."

All Markets Are Local

Looking beneath the national numbers, Robert Denk, NAHB's assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, noted a range of conditions across the country and differences among the states in the amount of distress suffered during the recession and the headway that is being made in recovery.

Housing nationwide bottomed out at an average of 27 percent of normal production in early 2009.

The hardest hit states where production soared to unsustainable levels during the boom years -- California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida -- bottomed out at 10 percent to 20 percent of normal when the housing bubble burst. In sharp contrast, better states that did not experience a huge production run up during the boom declined to 50 percent of normal production.

"We've now gotten past the point where we are digging out of holes and repairing the carnage of the housing markets," said Denk. "It's no longer about the boom and the bust. Now it's about the underlying [state and regional] economies and how that is supporting the housing recovery."

For example, while Texas and Florida have roughly the same number of mortgages, Florida had nearly five times as many foreclosures during the height of the downturn and today has less than double.

Now that housing has entered a new stage in the healing process, local economic conditions are dictating the pace of recovery. "That's why the bubble states are no longer in the bottom tier and have moved ahead of the industrial Midwest," he said.

The gradual and steady housing recovery now underway across the land will bring nationwide housing starts to 71 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of next year and 93 percent of normal by the end of 2015, Denk said.

Leading the way will be oil and gas producing states Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming and Montana; and Iowa, supported by agricultural commodities.

In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2015 the top 20 percent of states will be back to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 84 percent.

Builder Confidence Unchanged in September

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 - Following four consecutive months of improvement, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged in September with a reading of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

"While builder confidence is holding at the highest level in nearly eight years, many are reporting some hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in interest rates," said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. "Home buyers are adjusting to the fact that, while mortgage rates are still quite favorable on a historic basis, the record lows are probably a thing of the past."

"Following a solid run up in builder confidence over the past year, we are seeing a pause in the momentum as consumers wait to see where interest rates settle and as the headwinds of tight credit, shrinking supplies of lots for development and increasing labor costs continue," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations in the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average," or "low to very low." Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

HMI component indexes were mixed in September. While the component gauging current sales conditions held unchanged at 62, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months declined three points to 65 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased one point, to 47.

All four regions posted gains in their three-month moving average HMI scores in September, including a two-point gain to 41 in the Northeast, a four-point gain to 64 in the Midwest, a two-point gain to 56 in the South and a four-point gain to 61 in the West, respectively.

Editor's Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found atnahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.

Record High 291 Housing Markets Listed as Improving in September

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Sept. 9 - A total of 291 metropolitan areas across the country now qualify as improving housing markets, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) for September, released today. This reflects a gain of 44 markets from August and marks the index's highest level since it was initiated two years ago.

The IMI identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. In September, 242 housing markets retained their existing positions on the IMI while 49 new markets were added and five were dropped from the list. Recent additions include such geographically diverse locations as Macon, Ga.; St. Cloud, Minn.; Brownsville, Texas; Spokane, Wash.; and Milwaukee, Wis.

"Just over 80 percent of the 361 metros tracked by our index are showing consistent growth in three key measures of housing market strength - prices, permits and employment," explained NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. "While there is still plenty of room for growth, this is an excellent indication of how the housing recovery has begun to take hold across more geographic areas."

"The dramatic increase in markets qualifying for the IMI in September was partly due to a recent improvement in the way that Freddie Mac measures home prices, which resulted in stronger gains than previously reported," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Even so, the broadened list of metros on the IMI continues to demonstrate the slow but steady gains that individual housing markets are making to bolster the national outlook."

"With every state now able to claim at least one county that's part of an improving metro, and 23 states having charted at least one new entry in September alone, prospective home buyers have good reason to be encouraged by this news," said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co.

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three measures for at least six consecutive months following those measures' respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.

A complete list of all 291 metros currently on the IMI, and separate breakouts of metros newly added to or dropped from the list in September, is available at www.nahb.org/imi.

Editor's Note: Starting in October, NAHB will be phasing out the Improving Markets Index and replacing it with a new index to be released on the same schedule. More information on the new index will be announced in a subsequent news release.

Apartment and Condominium Market Gains Momentum in Second Quarter

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 - Production of apartments and condominiums gained momentum in the second quarter of 2013, according to the latest Multifamily Production Index (MPI), released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The index increased nine points to 61, which is the highest reading since its inception in 2003.

The MPI measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the apartment and condominium market on a scale of 0 to 100. The index and all of its components are scaled so that any number over 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions are improving than report conditions are getting worse.

The MPI provides a composite measure of three key elements of the multifamily housing market: construction of low-rent units, market-rate rental units and "for-sale" units, or condominiums. In the second quarter of 2013, the MPI component tracking builder and developer perceptions of market-rate rental properties rose six points to 67, the 11th straight quarter above 50; for-sale units had a significant increase of 16 points to 58, which is the highest reading since the second quarter of 2005; and low-rent units increased five points to 60.

"Multifamily developer confidence is currently at an all-time high according to our survey results, and we expect to see that continue for the foreseeable future," said W. Dean Henry, CEO of Legacy Partners Residential in Foster City, Calif., and chairman of NAHB's Multifamily Leadership Board. "Much of the consumer demand that we are now seeing is coming from a large generation of young people who are able to find jobs and establish their own households as the economy continues to improve."

The Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI), which measures the multifamily housing industry's perception of vacancies, rose four points to 42. With the MVI, lower numbers indicate fewer vacancies. After peaking at 70 in the second quarter of 2009, the MVI improved consistently through 2010 and has been at a fairly moderate level since 2011.

Historically, the MPI and MVI have performed well as leading indicators of U.S. Census figures for multifamily starts and vacancy rates, providing information on likely movement in the Census figures one to three quarters in advance.

"The apartment and condo sector continues to expand production," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "This increased level of activity is needed to meet current demand and to compensate for a serious lack of new units developed during the housing downturn."

For data tables on the MPI and MVI, visit www.nahb.org/mms.

Housing Starts Rise 5.9 Percent in July

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Aug. 16 - Nationwide housing starts rose 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 896,000 units in July as multifamily construction rebounded from a dip in the previous month, according to newly released figures from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. Meanwhile, single-family construction recorded a modest decline from a rate that was upwardly revised for the previous month.

"Builders are making every effort to keep up with the rising demand for new homes and apartments, and construction in both sectors is running well ahead of the pace we saw at this time last year," noted Rick Judson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. "However, ongoing issues with accessing credit and limited supplies of finished lots and labor are making it tough to do that, particularly for single-family builders."

"Today's report is in line with our forecast for continued, gradual strengthening of housing starts and permit activity through the rest of the year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "The double-digit bounce-back on the multifamily side was in keeping with typical month-to-month volatility in that sector," he noted, "while the sideways movement in single-family was a result of unusually wet weather in the South and West."

Single-family housing starts declined 2.2 percent from an upwardly revised pace in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units in July. Meanwhile, a 26 percent gain to a 305,000-unit pace on the multifamily side offset a similar dip in the previous month.

Regionally, combined housing starts activity posted solid gains of 40.2 percent in the Northeast, 25.4 percent in the Midwest and 7.2 percent in the West, respectively, in July, while the South posted a 7 percent decline.

Issuance of building permits, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 943,000 units in July. Single-family permits dipped 1.9 percent to 613,000 units from a strong pace in the previous month, while multifamily permits gained 12.6 percent to 330,000 units.

Regionally, combined permit issuance increased across the board in July, with gains of 1 percent, 2.8 percent, 1.1 percent and 7.1 percent in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West, respectively.

Rising Home Values Impact Affordability in Second Quarter

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 - Nationwide housing affordability slipped several notches as recovering markets witnessed significant firming of home prices in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), released today.

In all, 69.3 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of April and end of June were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $64,400. This is down from the 73.7 percent of homes sold that were affordable to median-income earners in the first quarter, and the first time that the measure has fallen below 70 percent since late 2008.

"Housing affordability has been hovering near historic highs for the past several years, largely due to exceptionally favorable mortgage rates and low prices during the recession," observed NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. "Now that markets across the country are recovering, home values are strengthening at the same time that the cost of building homes is rising due to tightened supplies of building materials, developable lots and labor."

"Rising home prices signal the improving health in housing markets, and the median price of all new and existing U.S. homes sold in this year's second quarter, at $202,000, was well ahead of the second quarter 2012 median price of $185,000," observed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Together with rising mortgage rates, this contributed to affordability slipping to the lowest level in more than four years. Such movement would be less concerning were it not for ongoing discussions regarding potential changes to the mortgage interest deduction and federal support for the secondary mortgage market, both of which play enormous roles in keeping homeownership affordable."

While Ogden-Clearfield, Utah, was rated the nation's most affordable major housing market for a fourth consecutive quarter, a newcomer - Utica-Rome, N.Y. - claimed the title of most affordable smaller market in the latest HOI.

In the larger metro, 92.8 percent of all new and existing homes sold in this year's second quarter were affordable to families earning the area's median income of $70,800. This was slightly lower than the 93.4 percent of homes sold that were affordable to median income-earners in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, just over 97 percent of new and existing homes sold in Utica-Rome in the same period were affordable to families earning that area's median income of $63,800.

Other major U.S. housing markets at the top of the affordability chart in the second quarter included Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; and Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., in descending order.

Smaller markets joining Utica at the top of the affordability chart included Kokomo, Ind.; Cumberland, Md.-W.V.; Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J.; and Bay City, Mich.

For a third consecutive quarter, San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. held the lowest spot among major markets on the affordability chart. There, just 19.3 percent of homes sold in the second quarter were affordable to families earning the area's median income of $101,200.

Other major metros at the bottom of the affordability chart included Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.; New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J.; and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.; in descending order.

All of the least affordable small housing markets were in California in the latest quarter. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Santa Cruz-Watsonville, where 30 percent of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the area's median income of $73,800. Other small markets at the lowest end of the affordability scale included San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Salinas, Napa and Santa Rosa-Petaluma, respectively.

Please visit www.nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

Editor's Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to families earning the area's median income during a specific quarter. Prices of new and existing homes sold are collected from actual court records by Core Logic, a data and analytics company. Mortgage financing conditions incorporate interest rates on fixed- and adjustable-rate loans reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.

Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Shows Significant Improvement in Second Quarter

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Aug. 8 - Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes showed strong continued improvement in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index increased 24 points to a level of 53, which is the highest second-quarter number since the inception of the index in 2008 and the seventh consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.

"Builders and developers for the 55+ housing sector are feeling optimistic as they are seeing more consumers return to the marketplace," said Robert Karen, chairman of NAHB's 50+ Housing Council and managing member of the Symphony Development Group. "With existing home prices rising, consumers are able to sell their current homes and make the move toward either purchasing a home or renting an apartment that is designed to more specifically suit their lifestyle."

There are separate 55+ HMIs for two segments of the 55+ housing market: single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each 55+ HMI measures builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic). An index number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.

All of the components of the 55+ single-family HMI showed major growth from a year ago: present sales climbed 24 points to 54, expected sales for the next six months increased 25 points to 60 and traffic of prospective buyers rose 26 points to 48.

The 55+ multifamily condo HMI posted a substantial gain of 24 points to 43, which is the highest second-quarter reading since the inception of the index. All 55+ multifamily condo HMI components increased compared to a year ago as present sales rose 26 points to 44, expected sales for the next six months climbed 26 points to 46 and traffic of prospective buyers rose 19 points to 38.

The 55+ multifamily rental indices also showed strong gains in the second quarter as present production increased 19 points to 50, expected future production rose 20 points to 52, current demand for existing units climbed 20 points to 62 and future demand increased 21 points to 63.

"The 55+ HMI for single-family homes almost doubled from a year ago," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Sentiment in other segments of the 55+ market housing was strong as well. This is consistent with the increase in builder confidence we've seen in other NAHB surveys recently. At this point, the main challenge for builders in many parts of the country is finding enough buildable lots in desirable locations and workers with the necessary skill set to respond to the increased demand."

Improving Markets List Includes 247 Metros in August

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 - A total of 247 metropolitan areas across 49 states and the District of Columbia qualified for inclusion on the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) for August, released today. While this is eight metros shy of the number listed on the IMI in July, it is approximately three times the number of metros that qualified for the list in August of 2012.

The IMI identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. Three new markets were added to the list and 11 dropped from it in August. Newly added metros this month include Kankakee, Ill., along with Atlantic City and Ocean City, N.J.

"In all, 244 metros that were listed as improving in July retained that status in August, and this is an encouraging sign of the continuing housing recovery," noted NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. "That said, we know that the pace of improvement is being hampered somewhat by challenges that builders and buyers are experiencing with regard to the availability of credit, materials, lots for development and labor."

"While the number of improving housing markets this August remains well ahead of the same month last year, the index is affected by seasonal softening in home prices just as we saw happen in 2012. The metros that fell off the list this month originally qualified with very small home price improvements that have since slipped back," explained NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "As house prices return to more normal levels in fully recovered markets, further IMI advancements will be more modest."

"Even with the small decline in the IMI this month, close to 70 percent of all U.S. metros are represented, and the geographic distribution of entrants continues to be very widespread," said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company. "These facts should be reassuring to today's prospective home buyers."

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three measures for at least six consecutive months following those measures' respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.

A complete list of all 247 metros currently on the IMI, and separate breakouts of metros newly added to or dropped from the list in August, is available at www.nahb.org/imi.

Remodeler Confidence Rebounds in Second Quarter

NAHB Press Release

WASHINGTON, July 25 - Confidence in the remodeling market rebounded in the second quarter of 2013 with the Remodeling Market Index (RMI) rising six points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The rise in existing home sales and increased demand for remodeling projects contributed to the positive report.

An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity.

"Remodelers are feeling optimistic about the home improvement market during what has turned out to be an uneven recovery," said NAHB Remodelers Chairman Bill Shaw, GMR, GMB, CGP, a remodeler from Houston. "The RMI future market results are especially promising. Not only do remodelers have projects booked for the next few months, but they also have more work coming in the door."

The future market indicators component of the RMI increased to 56 from the previous quarter level of 48. Current market conditions rose from 50 in the previous quarter to 54. All of the indicators of future activity (i.e. calls for bids, work committed for three months, backlog, and appointments) were over 50 for the first time in eight years.

"Remodelers' positive sentiment is directly related to increased demand for their services. Rising home prices are making remodeling jobs possible for more homeowners while existing home sales provide additional momentum as home owners prepare their homes for market," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
For more information about remodeling, visit www.nahb.org/remodel.

Highlights of Colliers 2Q 2013 Industrial Market Report

A couple of highlights, courtesy of William Froelich, Vice President | Hawaii Industrial Division Manager, Colliers International:

1. Island wide vacancy rate is 3.15%, with projected vacancy under 3% by year end. (We have not seen this since 2007)
1. Central Business district vacancy rate less then 2%.
2. Average rental rate averages over $1.00 psf triple Net.
2. Spec building is not supportable by the standard investor until rental rates rise another 30%.
1. With no relief in site, we predict that will happen by more than 10% per year.
3. Pressure on our industrial market as a result of general economic improvement, rail, housing boom in kakaako, tourism, and military spending will create raw land demand where there are availabilities. (out west)

 Download complete report here